Reflection Loops

PolyGnosis 2.0: Multi-Agent Architecture for Prediction Market Intelligence via Harness Engineering

PolyGnosis 2.0 introduces a multi-agent system that synthesizes Polymarket prediction market signals with GDELT OSINT streams to identify 'Perspective Mismatches' as trading signals. The paper rigorously evaluates agentic harness engineering techniques—reflection loops, tool-calling, divide-and-conquer partitioning, and chain-of-thought—in high-noise financial domains. Key empirical findings include that structural partitioning is necessary for multi-dimensional alignment, but unconstrained terminal reflection induces logical drift, and a pervasive consensus bias emerges across agent configurations. The authors identify a Pareto-optimal configuration achieving professional-grade analytical precision with minimized latency and token overhead.