5arXiv cs.LG (Machine Learning)·
CoMet: Decomposed uncertainty estimation for multimodal LLMs without repeated sampling
Researchers from Princeton introduce CoMet, a post-hoc uncertainty estimation method for multimodal large language models that decomposes uncertainty into a context-specific term (prompt/task ambiguity) and a multiplicity-specific term (number of plausible answers compatible with the input). A lightweight module is trained to estimate these quantities without requiring autoregressive generation or repeated sampling, making it computationally efficient. Experiments across open-ended multimodal benchmarks, hallucination detection, and visual QA show consistent improvements over existing baselines.
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Clustered Self-Assessment: LLM uncertainty quantification via semantic clustering and multiple-choice self-evaluation
A new arXiv preprint proposes Clustered Self-Assessment, a method for uncertainty quantification in LLMs that groups sampled generations into semantically distinct clusters, reformats them as multiple-choice options, and uses the model's own probability assignments as confidence estimates. The approach outperforms entropy-based baselines across multiple models and datasets, achieving competitive performance with as few as two additional samples. The method is notable for directly leveraging the model's self-assessment capability rather than relying on indirect distributional signals.
Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback (RLMF) improves LLM calibration and uncertainty expression
Researchers introduce Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback (RLMF), a training paradigm that refines preference optimization using a model's self-judgments of its own performance quality. The method is applied to faithful calibration — aligning a model's expressed confidence with its intrinsic uncertainty — and achieves state-of-the-art results across diverse tasks while outperforming standard RL by up to 63%. A companion technique, metacognitive data selection, uses similar self-judgments to identify high-value training examples, outperforming naive active learning baselines. The work positions metacognitive performance as a novel and effective RL signal for improving LLM reliability and alignment.
Mitigating Perceptual Judgment Bias in Multimodal LLM-as-a-Judge via Perceptual Perturbation and Reward Modeling
This paper identifies and analyzes 'Perceptual Judgment Bias' in multimodal LLM judges, where models anchor on response text rather than visual evidence when the two conflict. The authors introduce a Perceptually Perturbed Judgment Dataset using counterfactual responses to isolate perceptual errors, and a training framework combining GRPO-based reward modeling with batch-ranking objectives. Experiments on MLLM-as-a-Judge benchmarks show improved perceptual fidelity, ranking coherence, and alignment with human evaluation.
Systematic Study of LLM Linguistic Uncertainty Markers and Intrinsic Confidence Calibration
This paper introduces 'marker internal confidence' (MIC) as a formalization of the intrinsic confidence a model associates with epistemic markers (e.g., 'it is likely...') in a given task domain. The authors present 7 metrics to evaluate MIC stability within and across distributions, finding that LLMs remain miscalibrated even under model-centric interpretation of marker meanings. Models struggle to differentiate markers by internal confidence across distributions, though they preserve a somewhat consistent ranking order across tasks. The work provides complementary evidence toward understanding faithful calibration in LLMs and highlights the need for more stable, aligned marker use.
Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents
This paper formalizes a failure mode in multi-component LLM agent systems where individual components are locally probabilistically coherent but their composition violates basic probability axioms. The authors introduce the 'compositional residual' (eps*) as a runtime-computable measure of this incoherence, finding it positive in 33–94% of ensemble cliques across 1,876 tested configurations on a four-LLM panel. A hierarchical Boyle-Dykstra projection is proposed as a deterministic repair, and an anytime-valid e-process enables sequential monitoring. Notably, three intuitive LLM-side mitigations—retrieval, partition-aware prompting, and aggregator-LLM—each fail or regress.
Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM): training-free decoding intervention to address LLM likelihood trap
Researchers propose Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM), a training-free pre-decoding method that reshapes LLM probability distributions before truncation to combat repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness. VCM combines two mechanisms: Contextual Searchlight via PMI (suppressing stopwords, elevating context-relevant tokens) and Adaptive Self-Debiasing (scale-invariant penalization using real-time logit standard deviation). Evaluated across open-ended generation, factual QA, and mathematical reasoning, VCM improves diversity, coherence, and reasoning accuracy at higher temperatures with negligible overhead. The method is compatible with existing decoding strategies like Top-p and Min-p.
Reverse Probing: Supervised Token-level Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs in Clinical Text
The paper introduces Reverse Probing, a novel uncertainty quantification framework designed specifically for clinical text summarization that estimates token-level uncertainty from pre-existing labeled summaries rather than sampling new outputs. It extracts uncertainty signals from four categories of internal model activations, treating text as a probe into the model's internal state. Evaluated on two expert-annotated clinical datasets, it outperforms eight adapted baselines on all metrics, achieving up to 4× higher AUPRC while reducing inference time and compute. Feature analysis identifies delta energy and neighborhood context as the most consistent predictors of uncertainty across models.
Uncertainty-Based Decontamination (UBD) framework for removing benchmark contamination from LLMs
Researchers propose Uncertainty-Based Decontamination (UBD), a method that uses deep ensembles of a contaminated model to estimate per-sample memorization and correct for benchmark data contamination without requiring access to an uncontaminated reference model. The approach introduces a sample-level evaluation framework using distributional distance metrics alongside aggregate accuracy to better characterize decontamination quality. Experiments on MMLU-Pro and MATH-MCQA show UBD produces output distributions closer to uncontaminated baselines than paraphrasing or choice-permutation methods. The work addresses a significant validity concern in LLM evaluation, where contamination inflates reported benchmark performance.