A Causal Model of Theory of Mind in Conflict for Artificial Intelligence

Causal DAG model for when AI systems should engage Theory of Mind in conflict scenarios

A new arXiv preprint proposes a structural causal model (formalized as a directed acyclic graph) that treats Theory of Mind as a conditionally activated mechanism rather than an always-on capacity in AI systems. The model specifies exogenous situational and agent-level conditions, five endogenous mediators, and three causal pathways (tractability, reasoning-depth, enabling-cause) leading to an epistemic accuracy outcome. The work targets human-machine teaming in conflict contexts, offering a resource-rational decision procedure for when AI should engage social reasoning. Simulation validation and ethical considerations for conflict-optimized mentalizing are discussed.