AI Existential Risk

AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy

This commentary argues that numerical probability estimates for AI existential risk are epistemically unreliable and should not be used as a basis for policy decisions. The piece critiques the practice of assigning precise figures to speculative scenarios, characterizing it as pseudo-quantification that lends false credibility to uncertain claims. The author contends that such estimates are laundered speculation rather than grounded forecasting.