Generalized Method of Moments

Predictability as a Fine-Grained Privacy Metric Complementary to Differential Privacy

A new arXiv preprint introduces 'privacy via predictability,' a framework that measures privacy leakage as the incremental gain in an attacker's ability to predict sensitive information after observing an algorithm's output, conditioned on the attacker's prior knowledge. The authors show predictability and differential privacy are generally incomparable, but that predictability implies mutual-information DP in worst-case regimes. They develop a generalized method of moments framework for asymptotic analysis and derive a predictability-calibrated output perturbation scheme for empirical risk minimization. The work positions predictability as a complementary, finer-grained alternative to DP for settings where attacker knowledge and query families can be specified.