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Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting

paperactiveprovisionalhuman-capital-not-model-benchmarks-predicts-hybrid-intelligence-in-forecasting-cd38ca2e·1 events·first seen 24h ago

Aliases: Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting

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Polymarket

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6arXiv · cs.AI·24h ago·source ↗

Human capital traits, not model benchmarks, predict effective human-AI collaboration in forecasting

A pilot study using Polymarket as an externally resolved benchmark finds that the value of human-AI collaboration in forecasting is highly individual-dependent, with a trimodal distribution: most users either defer to the model or rubber-stamp prior beliefs, while a minority engage in genuine complementary reasoning that matches or beats market accuracy. Collaborative traits—perspective-taking, intellectual humility, and curiosity—predicted who reached the high-performance mode, while raw cognitive ability and model benchmark scores did not. The results challenge the common practice of reporting human-AI collaboration effects as a single average, and a pre-registered replication is in preparation.

Evaluation and Benchmarking Polymarket Human Capital, Not Model Benchmarks, Predicts Hybrid Intelligence in Forecasting