OLMoE-1B-7B-0924

Causal audit finds routing statistics do not predict expert importance in MoE pruning

A new arXiv paper conducts a token-level interventional audit of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) pruning heuristics across three architectures (OLMoE-1B-7B, Qwen1.5-MoE, DeepSeek-V2-Lite), finding that no standard observational metric — utilization rates, activation norms, routing weight distributions — reliably predicts which experts can be removed without functional cost. Effect sizes fall below Cohen's d = 0.17 across all 60 metric-layer combinations after multiple-comparison correction, with only a single significant signal at OLMoE's final layer. The authors argue that existing pruning methods succeed not because they identify dispensable experts but because early-layer redundancy makes most selection criteria interchangeable. The work frames this as a concrete counterexample to the broader interpretability practice of treating associational (rung-1) evidence as interventional (rung-2) conclusions.