Words as Difference Makers: How Large Language Models Determine Causal Structure in Text
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Paper argues LLMs learn causal structure via difference-making logic, not Pearl/Rubin frameworks
A new arXiv preprint proposes that LLMs learn causal structure through 'variational induction' — a difference-making logic — rather than through the dominant formalisms of Judea Pearl's interventionist approach or the Neyman-Rubin potential outcomes framework. The author analyzes how this logic is realized during training and maps specific architectural features (token embeddings, self-attention) to their roles in this inductive process. The argument draws a parallel between LLM causal learning and the experimental method of systematically varying circumstances. This is a theoretical contribution to understanding how LLMs represent causal and world-model structure.