5arXiv cs.CL (Computation and Language)·
Future Confidence Distillation enables pre-solution confidence estimation in LLMs
Researchers introduce 'future confidence distillation,' a method that trains predictors on pre-solution hidden representations using post-solution correctness probes as teacher signals, enabling reliable confidence estimation before answer generation completes. The paper compares pre-solution Feeling-of-Knowing (FOK) and post-solution Judgement-of-Learning (JOL) confidence estimates across frontier and open-source LLMs, finding post-solution estimates are better calibrated and that linear probes recover richer confidence information than models verbalize. Distilled predictors recover much of the post-solution calibration improvement while remaining sample-efficient and domain-transferable. This has practical implications for confidence-aware systems involving retrieval, tool use, and adaptive computation.
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Framework for quantifying faithful confidence expression in large reasoning models
A new arXiv preprint introduces a framework to measure faithful calibration (FC) in large reasoning models (LRMs)—the alignment between a model's intrinsic confidence and its linguistically expressed confidence. The authors analyze linguistic decisiveness against three internal uncertainty sources (token probabilities, hidden states, sampled response consistency) and introduce prefix-conditioned sampling to handle structural variation in chain-of-thought traces. Applying the framework across leading models, they find FC is a significant and distinct failure mode for LRMs: extended reasoning traces do not automatically improve calibration, prompt interventions that help non-reasoning models fail in the reasoning setting, and different confidence estimators produce divergent assessments of the same traces.
Canonical-Context On-Policy Distillation (CCOPD) for Multi-Turn LLM Consistency
This paper identifies 'self-anchored drift' as a key failure mode in multi-turn LLMs: when information is revealed incrementally across turns, models produce unsupported assumptions that distort final answers, even when the total evidence is identical to a single-prompt setting. The authors propose Canonical-Context On-Policy Distillation (CCOPD), which trains a student model on incremental multi-turn conversations to match the output distribution of a frozen teacher conditioned on the full clean prompt. Trained only on math conversations, CCOPD achieves a 32% average relative improvement on multi-turn (RAW-SHARDED) tasks and generalizes zero-shot to five out-of-domain task families while preserving single-prompt performance.
Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback (RLMF) improves LLM calibration and uncertainty expression
Researchers introduce Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback (RLMF), a training paradigm that refines preference optimization using a model's self-judgments of its own performance quality. The method is applied to faithful calibration — aligning a model's expressed confidence with its intrinsic uncertainty — and achieves state-of-the-art results across diverse tasks while outperforming standard RL by up to 63%. A companion technique, metacognitive data selection, uses similar self-judgments to identify high-value training examples, outperforming naive active learning baselines. The work positions metacognitive performance as a novel and effective RL signal for improving LLM reliability and alignment.
Strong Teacher Not Needed? On Distillation in LLM Pretraining
This paper challenges the conventional assumption that knowledge distillation requires a stronger teacher to produce better students. Through systematic variation of architecture sizes and training token budgets, the authors find that even small, undertrained teachers can improve larger student models when language modeling and distillation losses are properly mixed. Counterintuitively, stronger teachers can saturate or reverse distillation gains, and distillation benefits generalization more than in-domain fitting.
Clustered Self-Assessment: LLM uncertainty quantification via semantic clustering and multiple-choice self-evaluation
A new arXiv preprint proposes Clustered Self-Assessment, a method for uncertainty quantification in LLMs that groups sampled generations into semantically distinct clusters, reformats them as multiple-choice options, and uses the model's own probability assignments as confidence estimates. The approach outperforms entropy-based baselines across multiple models and datasets, achieving competitive performance with as few as two additional samples. The method is notable for directly leveraging the model's self-assessment capability rather than relying on indirect distributional signals.
Skill-Conditioned Gated Self-Distillation (SGSD) for LLM Reasoning
SGSD is a new on-policy self-distillation method for LLM reasoning that replaces trusted privileged information (e.g., reference answers) with an experience-derived skill bank of skill-mistake pairs. It constructs a multi-teacher pool, validates each teacher's contribution via a verifier, and applies a gated objective to distill informative disagreements while suppressing noisy signals. On Qwen3-1.7B, SGSD outperforms GRPO by 6.2% and answer-conditioned OPSD by 1.7% on average across AIME24, AIME25, and HMMT25. The method relaxes the assumption of trusted privileged information, making self-distillation more practical under weaker supervision.
Systematic Study of LLM Linguistic Uncertainty Markers and Intrinsic Confidence Calibration
This paper introduces 'marker internal confidence' (MIC) as a formalization of the intrinsic confidence a model associates with epistemic markers (e.g., 'it is likely...') in a given task domain. The authors present 7 metrics to evaluate MIC stability within and across distributions, finding that LLMs remain miscalibrated even under model-centric interpretation of marker meanings. Models struggle to differentiate markers by internal confidence across distributions, though they preserve a somewhat consistent ranking order across tasks. The work provides complementary evidence toward understanding faithful calibration in LLMs and highlights the need for more stable, aligned marker use.
DemoPSD: Disagreement-modulated policy self-distillation to fix privileged information leakage in LLM reasoning training
DemoPSD is a new training framework for LLMs that addresses two failure modes in on-policy self-distillation (OPSD): overfitting to in-domain patterns and privileged information leakage, where the student model learns answer-dependent shortcuts unavailable at test time. The method steers the student toward a reverse-KL barycenter target — a weighted geometric blend of teacher and student distributions — with token-level blending weights derived from the disagreement between the two distributions. Experiments on SciKnowEval across four scientific domains show DemoPSD outperforms GRPO and SDPO while maintaining higher training entropy and generalizing to out-of-distribution GPQA benchmarks.